Dr. Terry Barker

Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation research (4CMR)
Department of Land Economy
University of Cambridge
19 Silver Street
Cambridge, CB3 9EP
UK
E-mail: tsb1@cam.ac.uk
Tel: +44 1223 764878

Presentation Title:

Global and Sectoral Mitigation Potentials to 2030 and the Carbon Price: Towards Decarbonising the Global Economy

Abstract:

Mitigation potentials are clearly related to mitigation costs and both are key concepts for the analysis of policies for decarbonising the global economy. We need clear definitions of mitigation potentials, the barriers in achieving the potentials and the costs of reducing the barriers and the emissions, for both engineering and economic analysis of policies and a common agreement between disciplines to avoid semantic discussions. Agreement about the definitions of potentials was fundamental in IPCC AR4 WG3 Chapter 11 synthesis of results from bottom-up and top-down models and studies of GHG mitigation.
The paper will cover the main definitions of mitigation potentials, namely 1) Market potential, 2) Enhanced market potential (when barriers can be removed at very low costs) 3) Economic potential defined for a carbon price, the usual meaning, 4) Technical potential and 5) Physical potential. It will also cover what is meant by the carbon price and the shadow price of carbon, the social cost of carbon and how these concepts are inter-related.
The presentation will cover the estimated sectoral mitigation potentials to 2030 given in AR4 at different carbon prices and the problems of aggregation of bottom-up engineering studies. Some comments will be given on the comparison of top-down estimates with bottom-up estimates, and the key messages from AR4 for policies to 2030 towards decarbonising the global economy.

Biographical Sketch:

Dr. Gustav R. Grob

Prof. & Dean em. REDWODD International Petroleum School
President International Clean Energy Consortium ICEC
Chairman ISO/TC203 Technical energy systems analyses
Executive Secretary International Sustainable Energy Organization ISEO
President CMDC Cercle mondial du consensus, Geneva

ISEO, ISO, ICEC, CMDC
POB 200, CH-1211 Geneva 20
T: +41-41-754-4090
F: +41-41-750-9020
E: grob@icec.ch
www.icec.ch
www.uniseo.org
www.cmdc.net

Presentation Title:

The Global Transition to Sustainable Energy

Abstract:

Developed nations and countries in transition need effective sustainable energy policies to secure long-term energy supplies and to cope with the problems of global warming, biosphere degradation, spiraling health cost and the national balance of payments.
Greenhouse gases must be curbed much more and beyond the 2012 Kyoto protocol goal to reduce global warming, causing rising sea levels, flooded coastal areas and ocean islands, lost mangroves and wetland biotopes, melting glaciers and ice poles, ruined ski resorts, riverside inundations and land slides.
Sustainable energies will help to avoid health problems from pollution, radiation and noise, protect the biospheres and aqua-spheres, avoid acid rains and safeguard agriculture, fisheries, forestry, secure food and animal feed, water quality and prevent further desertification, human migrations and trade imbalances.
Finite mineral energy resources must be stretched for the future generation’s industrial needs and replaced by renewable energies with the most economic, ecological renewable energy mix as fast as possible.
The wealth from fossil fuel revenues must be wisely used for this transition to clean, sustainable energy. It shall rather be invested into high-tech and high-chem products, processes and systems serving the sustainable energy and food production, than for further uneconomical exploration of mineral energy resources.
Risks of disasters from oil wars, terror, sabotage, tornados, radioactive catastrophes from earth quakes or meteorites, volcano eruptions, explosions, leaks, oil spills, coal mine accidents causing health deteriorations and death can and must be prevented by all possible means.
The common goal must be better national policies and legislation for sustainable energies by enforcing the polluters-pay cost accounting principle, enabled by the international standard ISO 13602-1 - Methods for analysis of technical energy systems, and the ISEO Global Energy Charter for Sustainable Development.
ISO and IEC provide the necessary international standards as practical tools for the determination and eradication of environmental damages and health problems by clean energy systems.  In order to fulfil this historic task efficiently and speedily, following subjects must be dealt with:
Enforcement of the energy analysis, statistics and forecasting standards of ISO and intensified world-wide action in following areas:  Hydropower (small, medium, large and pumping);  wind power generation and pumping;  biomass (solid, liquid, gaseous, energy from waste);  geothermal energy; solar (PV, heat, drying, solar architecture, solar air conditioning and pumping, sterling engines);  ocean power;  clean fuels for heat and electricity production and energy storage;  heat pumps and co-generation;  low and zero energy architecture;  clean, sustainable transportation;  muscle energy;  energy efficiency (insulation, lighting, leaner vehicles, car pooling); education, responsible human behavior; easier and cheaper project financing;  intensified sustainable energy R&D;  better environmental and clean energy laws;  globally enforced sustainable energy policies.

Biographical Sketch:

Gustav R. Grob, Geneva, Switzerland             Contacts: grob@icec.ch ;    info@uniseo.org

Dr. Haruo Imai

Professor
Kyoto Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University
Tel: +81-75-753-7113
Fax: +81-75-753-7118
E-mail: imai@kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp
Address: Sakyo, Kyoto Japan, 606-8501

Presentation Title:

Game Analysis of Kyoto and Post-Kyoto Schemes

Abstract:

Kyoto protocol, put in force in Feb. 2005, is criticized from both sides, those demanding a stricter target for GHG (green house gas) emission reduction on the one side, and those claiming for more flexible and comprehensive controls of the emission on the other side, for its modest target and narrow coverage. Even though its value could be that of a mere precedent and experimentation, Kyoto protocol includes very special experimentation to assist the world wide cooperation for a mitigation of climate change, i.e. the introduction of three mechanisms, emissions trading, joint implementation, and clean development mechanism (CDM). Together, they are called Kyoto mechanisms. Evaluation of mechanisms is one important role of microeconomics and the game theory is a major tool for it. We shall scrutinize these mechanisms from such viewpoint. A special attention is placed on CDM, as it is the novel mechanism introduced by Kyoto protocol, and gives a unique link between Annex I nations (mostly developed countries) and non-Annex I nations (mostly developing countries).
Next, we examine some of the currently proposed schemes after 2013, the post Kyoto schemes.  One of the chief issues is the possibility of making a comprehensive agreement including both the USA and large developing countries with rapidly increasing emission levels of GHG like China and India.  Adding to these, not only the proposed schemes themselves, but the process of negotiation itself inspired several researches in cooperative game theory and in particular, coalition formation theory.  We shall touch upon this issue separately, and examine how successfully they predicted the outcome leading to Kyoto, retrospectively. Finally, we end our discussion with a brief consideration over the underlining normative argument concerning these schemes.

Biographical Sketch:

Haruo Imai is Professor of Economics at the Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University. He has served as editor of the Economic Studies Quarterly (now called the Japanese Economic Review). His research field is in game theory, mathematical economics, microeconomics, and their application in industrial economics and environmental policy. He is the leader of several research projects and has served as a committee member for the committee to investigate the Kyoto protocol of the Ministry of Environment.

Dr. Ian S. F. Jones

Professor
University of Sydney
Tel. +61-02-9351-4585
Fax: +61-02-9351-4584
E-mail: otg@otg.usyd.edu.au
Address: Ocean Technology Group, J05
University of Sydney, 2006, Australia

Presentation Title:

Global Warming Reduction through Ocean Carbon Storage

Abstract:

The ocean is a large sink of the carbon dioxide released as a result of fossil fuel burning. This paper examines the impact of methods that might be used to increase this uptake of carbon dioxide by the ocean and the effect this will have on ocean alkalinity. There are three sequestration strategies for the ocean: direct injection, deliberate changes in alkalinity and ocean enrichment.  Direct injection of carbon dioxide involves capture of the carbon dioxide while the other two approaches relies on natural processes to take the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Under the ocean enrichment strategy, limiting nutrients such as iron or macronutrients are supplied to the photic zone over deep water. Alternatively the deep water nutrients can be pumped to the surface to support grater phytoplankton growth.

Biographical Sketch:

Dr. I.S.F. Jones is a Fellow of the Institution of Engineers, Australia and past Vice President of IAPSO. Co author of “Wind Stress over the Ocean”, “Oceanography in the Days of Sail and presently completing for Cambridge University Press “Engineering Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation”.
Dr Jones is Chairman of the ECOR working Group, entitled “Carbon Storage in the Ocean and Director of three companies. For 5 years he was an Adjunct Senior Scientist at Columbia University New York and has been Visiting Professor at the University of Copenhagen, the University of Tokyo and University of Concepcion Chile.  Dr Jones is the author or co-author of three books (one translated into Chinese), 80 technical papers, 6 patents, 21 refereed technical reports and many conference abstracts.

Dr. David J.C. MacKay

Department of Physics, University of Cambridge
Cavendish Laboratory,
19 J J Thomson Avenue,
Cambridge CB3 0HE,
United Kingdom

http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/

Presentation Title:

Sustainable Energy - without the hot air

Abstract:

How easy is it to get off our fossil fuel habit? What do the fundamental limits of physics say about sustainable energy? Could a typical 'developed' country like Britain live on its own renewables? The technical potential of renewables is often said to be 'huge' - but we need to know how this 'huge' resource compares with another 'huge': our huge power consumption. The public discussion of energy policy needs numbers, not adjectives. In this talk I will express power consumption and sustainable production in a single set of personal, human-friendly units. Getting off fossil fuels is not going to be easy, but it is possible.

Biographical Sketch:

Dr. D. J. C. MacKay studied Natural Sciences at Trinity College, Cambridge then obtained his PhD in Computation and Neural Systems at the California Institute of Technology. He is now a Professor in the Department of Physics at Cambridge University. His research interests include machine learning, reliable computation and communication with unreliable hardware, and the creation of information-efficient human-computer interfaces. Over the last three years he has put most of these interests on hold in order to devote himself to the public understanding of sustainable energy. His popular book, "Sustainable Energy - without the hot air", is available for free from www.withouthotair.com.

Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri

Director General
The Energy and Resources Institute
Darbari Seth Block ,India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road
New Delhi-110 003, India

Presentation Title:

New knowledge on climate change: Imperatives for action

Abstract:

T.B.A

Biographical Sketch:

Dr. R.K. Pachauri has been the Chief Executive of TERI since 1981, designated initially as Director and since April 2001 as Director-General. In April 2002 he was elected as Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988. Dr. Pachauri has a PhD in Industrial Engineering and a PhD in Economics. He has taught on the faculty of Yale University, West Virginia University, North Carolina State University in the US and the Administrative Staff College of India in Hyderabad. He is the author of 23 books and several journal articles as well as writing in newspapers and magazines.
Dr. Pachauri was awarded the ‘Padma Bhushan’ in 2001 by the President of India and he was also bestowed the “Officier De La Légion D’Honneur” by the Government of France in 2006.

Dr. Marc A. Rosen

Professor and Dean
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science
University of Ontario Institute of Technology
Oshawa, Ontario, L1H 7K4, Canada
Email: marc.rosen@uoit.ca
Tel : 905/721-8668
Fax: 905/721-3370
and
President Elect,
Engineering Institute of Canada

Presentation Title:

Combating Global Warming via Non-Fossil Fuel Energy Options

Abstract:

Non-fossil fuel energy options are needed to help humanity combat climate change. Such energy options reduce or eliminate emissions of greenhouse gases and thus often form the basis of sustainable energy solutions. Non-fossil fuel energy options are diverse, ranging from renewables like solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, biomass, ocean, tidal and wave energy, through to nuclear energy. The latter may not be a renewable resource, but it avoids greenhouse gas emissions and thus contributes to efforts to avoid climate change. Renewable energy resources are normally free of greenhouse gas emissions, although some like biomass can lead to such emissions if not managed carefully.
Non-fossil fuel energy options are not sufficient for avoiding climate change, in that they are not necessarily readily utilizable in their natural forms. Hydrogen energy systems are needed to facilitate the use of non-fossil fuels by allowing them to be converted to two main classes of energy carriers: hydrogen and select hydrogen-derived fuels and electricity. The former allow humanity to meet most of its chemical energy needs, while the latter can satisfy most non-chemical energy demands. As hydrogen is not an energy resource, but rather is an energy carrier that must be produced, it complements non-fossil energy sources, which often need to be converted into more convenient forms.
In addition, high efficiency is needed to allow the greatest benefits to be attained from all energy options, including non-fossil fuel ones, in terms of climate change and other factors. Efficiency improvements efforts have many dimensions, including energy conservation, improved energy management, fuel substitution, better matching of energy carriers and energy demands, and more efficiency utilization of both energy quantity and quality. The latter two concepts are best considered via the use of exergy analysis, a thermodynamic tool based primarily on the second law of thermodynamics.
A case study is considered involving the production of hydrogen from non-fossil energy sources via thermochemical water decomposition. This process, which is still undergoing development, is mainly driven by thermal energy, and is anticipated to be usable for large-scale hydrogen production. In thermochemical hydrogen production, a series of complex chemical and other processes occur, with the net result being the splitting of water into hydrogen and oxygen. Most preliminary designs of thermochemical hydrogen production processes are based on nuclear energy and solar energy, thus providing different types of non-fossil fuel options for combating climate change.

Biographical Sketch:

Dr. Marc A. Rosen is the Founding Dean of the Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology in Oshawa, Canada. He is also President-elect of the Engineering Institute of Canada and has served as President of the Canadian Society for Mechanical Engineering. With over 50 research grants and contracts and 400 technical publications, Dr. Rosen is an active teacher and researcher in thermodynamics, energy technology (including cogeneration, district energy, thermal storage and renewable energy), and the environmental impact of energy and industrial systems. Much of his research has been carried out for industry, and Dr. Rosen has also worked for such organizations as Imatra Power Company in Finland, Argonne National Laboratory near Chicago, and the Institute for Hydrogen Systems near Toronto. Dr. Rosen is a professional engineer. He has received numerous awards and honours, and is a Fellow of the Engineering Institute of Canada, the Canadian Academy of Engineering, the Canadian Society for Mechanical Engineering, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers and the International Energy Foundation.

Dr. Takamitsu Sawa

Distinguished Professor
School of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University

Institute of Economic Research
Kyoto University
Yoshida-honmachi
Sakyoku, Kyoto, JAPAN 606-8501
Tel: +81-75-753-7111
Fax: +81-75-753-7117
Email: sawa@kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Presentation Title:

A Low Carbon Society Scenario towards 2050 and Their Economic Consequences

Abstract:

In order to avoid more disastrous climate change impacts it is necessary to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by half by 2050. To attain this purpose industrialized countries are obliged to reduce CO2 emissions by 70 to 80% by 2050, while developing countries are obliged to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% on the whole. First of all I will present on what kind of international framework is expected after Kyoto Protocol; second, what  kind of international cooperation is necessitated to attain the target in 2050; third, what kind of innovative technologies are feasible to be developed up to 2050; fourth, what kind of socio-economic reforms are necessary to reduce CO2 emissions. In conclusion, I will propose the roadmap to low carbon society scenario 2050.

Biographical Sketch:

1969 PhD in Economics from University of Tokyo
1967-69 Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Tokyo
1969-79 Associate Professor of Economics, Kyoto University
1975-78 Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Illinois
1976-  Fellow of the Econometric Society
1979-2006 Professor of Economics, Kyoto University
1990-2006 Director, Institute of Economic Research
2006-  Distinguished Professor, Ritsumeikan University
1993-  Member, Central Council of Environment, Japanese government
2003- Member, Council of Transportation Policy
1999- 2006 President, Society of Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
2007  Awarded a Purple Ribbon Medal from Japanese Emperor

Dr. Katia Simeonova

United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, Bonn, Germany
Martin Luter King Strasse 8, D-53175 Bonn Germany
E-mail: ksimeonova@unfccc.int

Presentation Title:

UNFCCC Process to Combat Global Warming and the Outcomes from the Bali Conference

Abstract:

Climate change progresses rapidly.  According to the recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), unless effective responses are found the global temperature is expected to raise between 1.8 and 4 degree C by the end of the century.  Sea levels are likely to raise by 28-43 cm.
The scientific evidence of the rapid progress of climate change and the serious global risks that it brings provided by the IPCC require an urgent response.  Climate change is a global problem in its cases and sequences and involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental, economic, political, institutional, social and technological processes and systems.  Therefore, it requires a global responses that could be achieved through international co-operation.
In recognizing the need for international co-operation in addressing climate change, practically all UN member-states adopted in 1992 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).  The Convention entered into force in 1994 and its Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005.
The UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol are the first and very important step in the international effort to combat climate change, but they are not enough to achieve stabilization of the greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at safe levels that would prevent dangerous human-induced interference with climate system.
At the Climate Change Conference in Bali in December 2007, Governments recognized that an enhanced response to climate change is needed.  The Bali Action Plan envisages a two years negotiation process that will lead to an enhanced action on climate change around the four key building blocks: mitigation, adaptation, technology and finance.
The outcome from these negotiations could provide a new framework for an enhanced action on climate change at the international and national level, that could bring about significant greenhouse emission reductions, could facilitate transfer of new environmentally friendly technologies from industriliazed to developing countries, could accelerate market penetration of emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage, could facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts, in particular in developing and least developed countries, and could ensure that sufficient financial incentives and tools are provided to developing nations to facilitate their action on climate change.

Biographical Sketch:

T.B.A.